Market Update: Rates Unchanged and Inflation as Expected; Existing Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On May 15, 2023

Mortgage rates trended slightly higher in the beginning of last week in preparation of the release of April’s consumer price index on Wednesday. Following the release, which revealed numbers that were exactly in line with expectations, rates started trending lower. They trended lower again on Thursday thanks to weaker data from certain economic reports. Weaker economic data = better for bonds = better for rates. As bond price increased, rates typically decrease. On Friday, however, bond prices fell, which influenced rates slightly.

This week holds several housing reports scheduled for release, including housing starts, building permits, the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market sentiment index, and the existing home sales data from April. Existing home sales decreased slightly in March following a big 14.5% monthly jump in February. Home builder sentiment has been increasing steadily for the past several months and is expected to remain stable in May. Building permits are expected to increase and housing starts are expected to slip slightly.

As we move closer to summer, more economists’ predictions are starting to trickle out for the upcoming months and rest of the year. Several experts are predicting that inflation will continue cooling and rates will start trending lower. They’re largely expecting the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index coming up to remain stable, like the CPI. Next month, we should start to see those numbers coming down.

If you’re buying now and worried about rates falling in the future, ask us about our Rate Rebound program, which can help you purchase now and refinance to a lower rate later (if the market rates fall) with no lender fees.*

Sources: Bloomberg, Mortgage News Daily,

*CMG Home Loans will cover all customary lender fees which are processing fee, administrative fee, tax service fee, appraisal fee and credit report fee. In addition CMG Home Loans will also credit the borrower up to $1,000 towards additional third-party fees. This offer does not cover discount points. Credit cannot exceed total fees. Rate Rebound is only valid on future conventional conforming, government, and jumbo loans in our retail channel (future Construction Loans, All in One, HELOCs, Bond or HFA loans are excluded). There may be additional restrictions based on investor. Offer may not be redeemed for cash or credit and is nontransferable. Offer cannot be retroactively applied to any loans. Offer may not be used with any other discounts, promotions or interest-only/buy-down and second lien products. This offer is subject to changes or cancellation at any time at the sole discretion of CMG Home Loans. Additional restrictions/conditions may apply. This is not a commitment to lend and is contingent on qualification per full underwriting guidelines. Program will be available on loans disclosed between 11/1/22 - 12/31/23, and closed by 3/29/24. Program is applicable for refinances 6 months after closing up to 5 years from original note date and with a net tangible benefit which includes a rate reduction of 0.5%, going from an ARM to fixed rate, reducing loan term, movement to a more stable product, or a lower principal and interest payment. By refinancing the existing loan, the total finance charges may be higher over the life of the loan. CMG Mortgage, Inc. dba CMG Home Loans, NMLS# 1820, is an equal housing lender. To verify our complete list of state licenses, please visit www.cmgfi.com/corporate/licensing and www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org.