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Market Update: Rates Unchanged; Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On August 08, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended higher. Throughout the week, they saw high volatility, fluctuating up and down. However, following the employment report on Friday morning, they began trending upward again. The employment report was overall better than expected – just not for the bond market. The number of jobs gains were higher than expected, but we are also seeing a reduction of output in terms of GDP specifically, which infers decreased productivity per worker. This is an inflationary signal, and the bond market (which influences rates), hates inflation.

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Market Update: Rates Fall; Construction Spending and Jobs Reports Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On August 01, 2022

Mortgage rates took a sharp downward tumble last week after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced another aggressive rate hike, and the GDP estimate showed another negative number for Q2 of 2022.

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Market Update: Rates Fall; New Home Sales and Fed Interest Rate Decision Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On July 25, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended down to two-week lows due to weak economic data in the U.S. and announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB). The Philadelphia Fed Index resulted in a chart that pointed to big economic weakness, which is good news for interest rates. The ECB also released an announcement about a new bond-buying program that will increase demand for specific European bonds. Generally, more bond demand leads to lower rates. Lower rates in Europe can influence rate trends in the U.S.

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged; NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On July 18, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates were relatively unaffected by the rising inflation levels reported by the consumer price index. Most people would typically expect a drastic shift higher in rates since inflation is the enemy of bonds, and the bond market influences rates. While rates did begin to trend slightly higher – it was not as big of a jump as expected. The cause? As inflation continues to climb higher in the current economic state, “the market increasingly sees [it] (and the Fed's necessary policy response) as resulting in recession,” writes Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily. When economic activity slows (recession symptoms), rates tend to trend lower.

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Market Update: Rates Slightly Higher; Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On July 11, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended slightly higher from their one-month lows the previous week. After last month’s consumer price index release showed that inflation was still climbing, rates trended sharply upward. Later, the bond market rallied after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and rates began trending lower. The consumer price index scheduled for release this week will be very important.

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Market Update: Rates Fall; Job Openings Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On July 04, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended downward to reach their lowest level in over a week. A large contributor was the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred method of measuring inflation. May’s PCE index revealed that spending was slightly cooler than expected. Inflation is the enemy of bonds, and mortgage rates closely follow the bond market. So, when the inflation numbers were better than expected, rates likely followed the bond market’s positive trend. Another factor was the Atlanta Fed releasing its revised GDP estimate for Q2 of 2022 following the PCE news. Prior to the index’s release, the estimate was around 0%. Then it dropped to -1% after the PCE news. When the economy shows signs of slowing, the bond market rallies, and interest rates typically trend lower.

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Signs That the Housing Market is Normalizing, Not Slowing

Blog posted On June 28, 2022

Order is being restored in the housing market. Two years ago, mortgage rates sank, and housing activity boomed. Home buyers jumped at low rates and homeowners wasted no time refinancing. Now, activity is cooling off. Some are framing it as a ‘slowdown’ in housing. While this isn’t entirely inaccurate, it doesn’t paint the full picture of what’s going on in the market, nor does it highlight why a ‘cooldown’ is actually needed in the current housing environment. 

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Market Update: Rate Fall; Pending Home Sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On June 27, 2022

Mortgage rates trended downward last week after a rally in the bond market following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony. During his testimony, he subtly prepped the markets for the possibility of a slowdown. When the economy slows, interest rates typically drop.

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Market Update: Rates Fluctuate; Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On June 20, 2022

Mortgage rates trended sharply upward near the beginning of last week as a response to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), which revealed that inflation is at its highest level in 40 years. Interest rates do not favor high inflation numbers. Typically, with higher inflation comes higher rates. And the release of May’s CPI proved no different. The market also heated up because the CPI was released right before the Federal Reserve decided on the future of the benchmark interest rate. Therefore, the Fed was in a “blackout period” – which means that the Fed members could not make any public comment on monetary policy. Without any guidance from Fed member comments, the market’s imagination went wild. Then, when the Fed released its announcement that it would raise the benchmark rate by 75 basis points, the bond market was actually relieved, which helped mortgage rates feel some relief and trend lower as well. By hiking the benchmark rate 0.75%, the Fed showed the bond market that it is serious about fighting inflation aggressively now.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Fed Interest Rate Decision, Housing Starts and Building Permits Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On June 13, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended higher after announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the release of the consumer price index for May. The US bond market reacted to an announcement from the ECB last week, which pushed mortgage rates higher. Additionally, the consumer price index showed that inflation is still climbing higher, which also caused a market reaction. Higher levels of inflation likely indicate that the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark interest rate by at least another 50 basis points in several of their upcoming meetings. To prepare for the upcoming Fed rate increases, the market mortgage rates are continuing to trend upward.

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Market Update: Rates Trend Higher; Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On June 06, 2022

Mortgage rates trended higher last week after seeing favorable downward trends the week before. Several factors contributed to the rise. One simply is the volatility of the current market. “Any time anything in the market has been doing one thing bigger/longer than normal, odds of a rebound increase,” writes Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. Other contributors include China’s easing of lockdowns, data showing that the manufacturing sector was more resilient than expected in May, and markets predicting an aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve in its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

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Market Update: Rates Drop; Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On May 30, 2022

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in over a month last week, according to the average data from Mortgage News Daily. One of the main causes for the downward trend is the continued declines in the stock market. Last week, there was a specific drop following the new home sales data. So, the silver lining of the seemingly poor trends in market-moving reports (like new home sales) is their potentially positive impact on rates.

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Market Update: Rates Trend Lower; New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On May 23, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended downward to hit three-week lows. Again, no huge contributing factor or obvious reason for the large sways in rate trends right now other than the extreme volatility of the current market.

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Market Update: Rates Trend Lower; NAHB Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and Existing Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On May 16, 2022

Mortgage rates dropped to some of the lowest levels in two weeks towards the middle of last week. Typically, decreases that drastic only happen but once a year and are tied to some huge event happening in the market. But this year is a year like no other. The volatility alone in the 2022 market has spawned some dramatic climbs and tumbles for rates. Commenting on the drops from last week, Mortgage News Daily CEO and founder Matthew Graham writes, “It's a sign of 2022's times that there really weren't any glaringly obvious scapegoats for this particular drop in rates.”

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On May 09, 2022

Mortgage rates trended upward last week for different reasons. Although the Federal Reserve hiked the benchmark interest rate, the market reacted more positively to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement that “the committee isn't even considering raising rates by more than 0.50% at any subsequent meeting,” writes Mortgage News Daily Chief Operating Officer Matthew Graham. Towards the end of the week, they began trending upward again. “In the case of the bond market, unwinding the Fed reaction meant crossing into territory that triggered additional selling,” writes Graham. “When traders are selling more bonds than they're buying, rate move higher, all other things being equal.”

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Construction Spending and The Fed Interest Rate Decision Coming Out This Week

Blog posted On May 02, 2022

Mortgage rates trended downward last week for the first time in nearly a month. Right now, “volatility is elevated [in the current market], and it has been for quite some time,” writes Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily. “Every time the rate market hits a new long term high, odds increase that we'll see some attempt at a counterattack in subsequent days.” Last week, the drop in rates was closely connected to the lockdowns in China, which caused a drop in global markets overnight, as well as a drop in oil prices.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Pending Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On April 25, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended upward. The cause, which was well explained by Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily, “[has remained] relatively unchanged over the past several months and almost perfectly unchanged over the past 6 weeks. Specifically, the Fed was in the process of making a significant shift in its monetary policy stance between September 2021 and the present. This involved faster rate hikes and bigger steps toward reducing bond purchases.”

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Market Update: Rates Trend Higher; NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On April 18, 2022

Mortgage rates fluctuated last week, ultimately trending higher by the end of the week. Much of the movement has to do with inflation levels and market predictions on what the Federal Reserve will do in its May meeting.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On April 11, 2022

Mortgage rates trended higher last week largely resulting from comments by various Fed members. Three weeks ago, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell kicked off the upward trend with his comments about speeding up the interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Then, last week, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard commented that Fed bond buying would be winding down significantly more. This made the markets react since she typically has more of a rate-friendly approach. More demand for bonds generally leads to lower rates. So with comments predicting a reduced bond demand from the Fed, mortgage rates reacted negatively.

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Market Update: Rates Fall; Consumer Credit Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On April 04, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended downward for the first time in several weeks. It began due to hopes that there would be de-escalation in Ukraine. With de-escalation would hopefully come reduced oil prices and easing upward pressure on inflation, allowing the Fed to ease their policy changes that could be negative influences for rates.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Case Shiller Home Price Index, Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On March 28, 2022

Last week mortgage rates saw a sharp trend upward. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke on Monday and discussed a more aggressive path with balance sheet reduction. The bond market reacted badly to this, which influenced a sharp trend upward in mortgage rates. This week, the Case-Shiller home price index is scheduled for release on Tuesday and the construction spending report is scheduled for release on Friday.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On March 21, 2022

Mortgage rates trended up for last week, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s rate hike announcement. In its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25%. While this hike was largely expected, the rate hike projections for the rest of the year were not. The new forecast projected seven rate hikes in 2022.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Fed Interest Rate Decision, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and Existing Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On March 14, 2022

Mortgage rates trended higher last week as inflation hit another 40-year high and continues to face upward pressures from the conflict in Ukraine. Mortgage rates are largely dependent on trends in the bond market, and the bond market does not like inflation.

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Market Update: Rates Fluctuate; Job Openings and Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On March 07, 2022

Mortgage rates saw a sharp downward trend near the beginning of last week. Then, on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that the Fed still plans to bump up the benchmark interest rate in its March meeting – but only by 25 basis points. This sent mortgage rates back on an upward trend because the bond market doesn’t like inflation, and inflation levels are very high right now. One of the Fed’s tools to combat inflation is the benchmark interest rate. The higher the rate hike, the greater likelihood of lowering inflation.

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Market Update: Rates Fluctuate; Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On February 28, 2022

Mortgage rates were trending higher in the beginning of last week but shifted lower after the news in Ukraine. Typically, global turmoil is a factor that can help the bond market because people want to invest in safer options than stocks. The bond market is closely tied with mortgage rates, so mortgage rates benefitted as well.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Case-Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales

Blog posted On February 21, 2022

 

Mortgage rates trended higher last week as the momentum from the previous week continued. The main cause a couple weeks ago was the consumer price index, which revealed that inflation levels are at a 40-year high level. Consequently, more experts believe that the Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On February 14, 2022

Mortgage rates continued their upward trend last week. One of the main factors was the consumer price index, released on Thursday, which showed inflation levels not seen since 1982. With higher inflation levels, the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise the benchmark interest rate in March.

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Market Update: Rates Inch Up; Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On February 07, 2022

Despite trending lower in the beginning half of last week, mortgage rates trended slightly higher toward the end. Foreign bond markets were largely the cause. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) hiked its benchmark rates and the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted at a rate hike in its upcoming meeting. Consequently, foreign bond yields rose, and U.S. bond yields followed the trend. Mortgage rate trends closely follow bond yield trends.   

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Market Update: Rates Inch Higher; Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On January 31, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended higher after the Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate hike in March. “The Fed’s announcement that it will ‘soon be appropriate’ to raise interest rates is a clear sign that a March rate hike is coming,” noted Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Although the benchmark interest rate does not directly set mortgage rates, it does influence them. When the benchmark interest rate dropped to zero two years ago, mortgage rates saw a similar downward trajectory. Now, in preparation for the Fed’s hike this Spring, rates are starting to inch up.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Case-Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales, and Fed Interest Rate Decision Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On January 24, 2022

Mortgage rates trended upward last week as the bond market continued adjusting to the Federal Reserve’s asset tapering plan. In December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it was speeding up its asset tapering in hopes of concluding the process in March. Soon after, the Fed will likely begin raising the benchmark interest rate. Right now, many traders are preparing for the eventual shift.

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Home Sales to Reach 16-Year High; Buyers Have ‘Much to Look Forward to’ in 2022

Blog posted On January 18, 2022

Mortgage rates may be inching up, but home buyers show no signs of slowing down. According to Realtor.com’s 2022 Housing Market Forecast, existing home sales are expected to surge 6.6% this year – bringing their annual total to a 16-year high. Despite challenges of affordability and availability, “home buyers have much to look forward to in 2022,” writes Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged; NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, Existing Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On January 17, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates were initially trending higher than the previous week. During the latter half of the week, they began trending lower. The bond market is largely tied to mortgage rate movement, and over the past two weeks, bond market supply has been elevated. Higher supply typically translates to higher rates. Other factors pushing rates higher include the Federal Reserve’s minutes released last week, and the potential for the Omicron variant to help speed up the endemic phase of COVID. Factors pushing rates lower included a stabilizing bond market and steady improvement following the congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On January 10, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended upward as the Omicron outlook brightened and the Federal Reserve released its minutes from the December meeting. “Bonds feed on fear, turmoil, and risk aversion,” wrote Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily. When the economy has a negative outlook, interest rates for things like bonds and homes tend to fall. When the economy is stronger, mortgage rates trend higher. Another factor pushing rates up is the Federal Reserve saying that it ideally would raise the benchmark interest rate sooner than previously anticipated. 

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged; Construction Spending and Job Openings Coming Up this Week

Blog posted On January 03, 2022

Mortgage rates were relatively unchanged last week. Many traders are monitoring the Omicron variant carefully and waiting to see how it will affect the economy. Kicking off the new year, both the construction spending report and job openings data are scheduled for release.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Pending Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On December 27, 2021

Mortgage rates remained relatively unchanged last week. Many investors are waiting to see how the Omicron variant will develop over the holidays. This week, the Case-Shiller home price index is scheduled for release on Tuesday and the pending home sales index is scheduled for release on Wednesday.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Interest Rate Decision, and Housing Starts and Building Permits Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On December 13, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended upward as more hopeful news about the Omicron variant was released. When the economy is doing better, mortgage rates typically trend higher. The job openings report and consumer price index also came out last week – showing a very high number of job openings and inflation levels. When inflation levels get too high, the Fed can use some of its tools to bring them back down. One of those tools is raising the benchmark rate. Many experts expect the Fed to further discuss a plan to speed up their asset tapering process, which would push their rate increases forward.

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Market Update: Rates Trend Lower; Job Openings Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On December 06, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended lower during the beginning of the week as concerns surrounding the Omicron variant spread. Typically, when news about something that could affect the economy breaks, people look to put their money in bonds as opposed to stocks. When bonds improve, rates tend to fall. 

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Market Update: Rates Trend Higher; Pending Home Sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On November 29, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended higher in reaction to the bond market. Typically, when the bond market is weaker, mortgage rates trend higher. The bond market saw its first pair of challenges early in the week with the re-nomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Though the re-nomination was largely expected, some hoped for the nomination of Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Brainard was viewed as a rate-friendly choice. Powell, however, has successfully navigated two years of the coronavirus pandemic. Additional bond pressure came from the Treasury auctions.

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On November 22, 2021

In the former half of last week, mortgage rates saw a slight upward trend after the release of more reports showing strong economic performance. On Tuesday, the retail sales report showed a 1.7% increase in October – the strongest monthly retail sales data in several years. Typically, when the economy grows stronger, interest rates trend higher. However, “In the bigger picture, rates are still [trending] very low,” said contributors at Mortgage News Daily. Coming up this week, both the existing home sales and new home sales report are scheduled for release.

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Market Update: Rates Rise, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On November 15, 2021

Mortgage rates trended upward last week. In the middle of the week, the bond market struggled. Interest rates are generally tied to the bond market, so if bonds have a bad day, mortgage rates will likely trend up too. One of the culprits was the consumer price index – a key inflation report – which showed inflation was at a higher-than-expected level. Bonds typically react badly to inflation.

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Federal Reserve Data Shows Housing Market is Still Strong

Blog posted On November 02, 2021

The housing market has been fueling the economy since the beginning of the pandemic. When other industries tumbled, the housing market boomed. Mortgage rates sunk to historic lows, buyers and owners jumped to purchase or refinance, and home sales soared to 15-year highs. A year and a half later, the real estate industry is still booming. Though some may fear that it has reached its peak, the housing market is going strong.   

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Market Update: Rates Fall; Construction Spending, Fed Interest Rate Decision Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On November 01, 2021

Last week started with mortgage rates trending higher but they quickly trended lower towards the middle of the week. The bond market showed similar trends. Typically, mortgage rates follow the patterns of the bond market. Right now, the biggest influencer on the bond market seems to be the Federal Reserve and its bond buying program. Ever since the Fed hinted at tapering assets soon, the bond market has shown more hesitation. Consequently, mortgage rates have generally trended upward. 

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Case-Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales, and Pending Home Sales Coming Up this Week

Blog posted On October 25, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended upward. Even though existing home sales and home builder sentiment showed growth, rates continued their upward momentum. “There really isn't any great, short-term explanation for the incremental [increases],” noted Mortgage Daily News contributors. Rates have simply been carried by an upward momentum since the Fed hinted at tapering assets in November or December. Unless the economic outlook or COVID recovery drastically changes over the next few weeks, it’s likely the Fed will begin the tapering process.

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Market Update: Rates Fall, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On October 18, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended downward after a few strong days in the bond market. When bonds – specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS) – show more strength, mortgage rates tend to fall. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also released its minutes from the September meeting, revealing a unanimous opinion that it was time to begin tapering assets.

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Market Update: Rates Rise, Job Openings and Consumer Price Index Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On October 11, 2021

Mortgage rates trended upward again last week with some weakening in the bond market and strong job reports. When the bond market is weaker, rates tend to be higher. The ADP employment report showed a stronger-than-expected number of nonfarm jobs hirings. Friday’s job reports, however, showed lower-than-expected results. Therefore, the bond market volatility seemed to level out by the end of the week but may heat up again this week.

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Market Update: Rates Rise, ADP Employment and Employment Situation Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On October 04, 2021

Mortgage rates continued their upward trend last week as the bond market continued to lose ground. When the bond market is weaker, rates are typically higher. Largely, the bond market has been losing ground since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting two weeks ago. After that meeting, the Federal Reserve showed increasing resolve about their plan to taper assets and raise rates in the near future. Consequently, the bond market reacted badly and hasn’t shown significant improvement yet, though

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Market Update: Rates Rise; Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Pending Home Sales, and Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On September 27, 2021

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, more members predicted that the first rate hike will occur next year as opposed to 2023. Consequently, mortgage rates reacted by trending higher. In his press conference last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that the “test for substantial further progress on employment is all but met therefore a gradual tapering process that concludes around the middle of next year is likely to be appropriate.” A large deciding factor will be the upcoming jobs reports next month.

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged, NAHB Housing Market Index, Existing Home Sales, Fed Interest Rate Decision, New Home Sales

Blog posted On September 20, 2021

Mortgage rates remained relatively unchanged last week. At the beginning of the week, rates were flat, until the release of the consumer price index (CPI), which sent rates slightly lower. When data suggests an improved economy or hotter inflation, rates typically trend higher. When reports suggest that the economy and inflation are cooling off, rates tend to trend lower. The CPI showed that inflation decelerated more than expected. Then, the underlying bond market showed promising signs as well, which continued rate improvements. However, bonds eventually started losing steam in the middle of the week, leveling out rates once more.

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged, Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On September 13, 2021

Mortgage rates trended higher toward the beginning of last week and lower toward the end of the week – creating little change in their levels from the week before. A strong 10-year Treasury auction and 30-year bond auction contributed to the rate improvements for many lenders. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are both good indicators for mortgage rate trends. Typically, when the prices of mortgage-backed securities rise, mortgage rates fall. When Treasury prices rise, mortgage rates tend to rise as well. Mortgage rates also reacted well to the European Central Bank’s announcement that they were reducing their bond buying efforts by a smaller amount than was expected. This week, there are few housing-specific reports, but a couple of important consumer-specific reports that tend to reflect the economy’s strength and influence rates.

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged, Job Openings Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On September 06, 2021

Mortgage rates were trending lower toward the beginning of last week and started trending higher towards the latter half of the week – leaving them relatively unchanged from the week prior. Not much happened in the bond market last week until Friday’s job’s report – which came in much lower than expected. Economists predicted nonfarm payrolls to increase by over 700,000 in August, but they only grew by 235,000. The limited growth likely reflects the rising concerns and restrictions with the Delta variant. Job growth is a key factor that the Fed is watching to determine when to taper their asset purchases. While the Fed had previously expressed optimism about the job gains, they could reassess their tapering timeline if jobs data continues to slow down.

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Market Update: Rates Trend Higher, Pending Home Sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Construction Spending Scheduled for Release

Blog posted On August 30, 2021

Mortgage rates trended slightly upward in the beginning of last week after some strong home sales reports. Additional rate influencers include falling bond prices and rising yields from the week before. Toward the end of the week, core inflation rose again according to the PCE index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. In his speech, Powell noted that ‘substantial further progress’ has been met for inflation and employment has improved notably as well. Ultimately, he sees the tapering of asset purchases to begin at the end of the year, however there is “much ground to cover” before the Fed raises rates.

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged, Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales Scheduled for Release

Blog posted On August 23, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates remained relatively unchanged. Near the middle of the week, they started inching up in reaction to the Fed’s July minutes – released on Wednesday. Though no key decisions were made during the Fed’s July meeting, traders are still nervous about future decisions related to assets and rates. The traders’ anxiety resulted in bond market weakness, which typically implies higher rates. In the latter half of the week, the bond market began to improve, pushing rates downward once again. By the end of the week, rates were largely unchanged from their levels the week before.

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Market Update: Rates Trend Upward, Housing Market Sentiment Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits

Blog posted On August 16, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates saw a slight upward trend after hitting six-month lows the week before. Strong jobs reports pushed rates slightly higher, but economic risks related to the Delta variant could keep them low. If COVID cases calm down or school starts without a noticeable uptick in case numbers, the Fed might be more inclined to push the benchmark rate up. The next few weeks should provide more data on the rise in cases. This coming week, the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market sentiment index is scheduled for release as is the report on housing starts and building permits. 

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Market Update: Rates Drop, Coming Up This Week: Job Openings and the Consumer Price Index

Blog posted On August 09, 2021

Near the beginning of last week, mortgage rates dipped near some of their lowest levels in six months – largely due to the Fed’s announcement and rising COVID cases. Toward the end of the week, rates began to trend upward due to strong economic reports including the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, the ADP employment report, and the employment situation. Positive reports suggest that the economy is returning to a more stable level, which would then prompt the Fed to potentially raise the benchmark rate. Consequently, bond prices fell and Treasury yields rose – typically pushing rates higher. This week, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is scheduled for release followed by the consumer price index.

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Market Update: Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Construction Spending, ADP Employment Scheduled for Release

Blog posted On August 02, 2021

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave interest rates unchanged. Though they did mention that the economy has improved substantially, they have kept the benchmark interest rate near zero. The path of continued economic recovery (and consequential rate adjustments) will largely depend on potential spread of the coronavirus, specifically the delta variant. Mortgage rates have trended downward in past weeks due to several different factors – one of which includes the rising delta variant concern. However, the Fed did claim that future waves of the virus should have less impact on the economy. As for asset tapering, they said that we are not seeing enough progress on employment levels to begin tapering just yet. In other news, this week, construction spending is scheduled for release, as well as the ADP employment report.

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Market Update: Rates Drop Sharply, Coming Up This Week: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and the FOMC Meeting

Blog posted On July 26, 2021

Mortgage rates continued to drop last week in reaction to the Adverse Market Refinance Fee removal. An additional influence on the rate trend was the significant improvement in the bond market. The combination of these two factors pushed rates for the average lender to their lowest range since February. There are also several important reports scheduled for release this week that could have an impact on rates and the housing market.

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Market Update: Rates Fall, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts & Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales

Blog posted On July 19, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates fell to some of their lowest levels in months after the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced the removal of the Adverse Market Refinance Fee. As of last Friday, lenders no longer have to pay a fee amounting to 0.5% of every refinance. “Santa Claus has come early for homeowners looking to refinance their mortgages,” said Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate chief financial analyst.

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Adverse Market Refinance Fee Eliminated

Blog posted On July 16, 2021

As of today, Friday July 16th, 2021, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has eliminated the Adverse Market Refinance Fee.  Homeowners still seeking to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates may now be able to save even more money through a refinance.

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Market Update: Rates Fall, Coming Up This Week: Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales

Blog posted On July 12, 2021

Mortgage rates took a sharp downward trend last week, hitting some of their lowest levels in the past five months. No major market-moving reports have caused the drop, but “timing pays a role,” according to contributors at Mortgage News Daily. Two weeks ago, we saw a stronger than expected jobs report, which would normally push rates higher, but rates didn’t move significantly and continued floating. Then, after the three-day weekend, trading resumed, and the bond market improved substantially – pushing rates lower. This week, the consumer price index and retail sales are both scheduled for release – which may also have an impact on rate movement.

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Market Update: Mortgage Rates Drop, Job Openings Scheduled for Release

Blog posted On July 05, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates fell to some of their lowest levels since mid-June. They have been slowly dipping ever since the Fed meeting on June 16. Though the monthly jobs report was a slight concern, it didn’t significantly impact rates. Nonfarm payrolls surged much higher than expected, which is a good sign for the economy and could start to shift rates higher. However, average weekly hours dipped slightly, unemployment inched up, and the participation rate remained unchanged. In other words, the report wasn’t overwhelmingly positive to the point where it could push mortgage rates higher.

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Market Update: Rates Fall, Case Shiller Home Price Index, Pending Home Sales, and Construction Spending Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On June 28, 2021

Mortgage rates trended downward towards the end of last week. Bonds had a few solid days of stability – the most stability since the Fed’s meeting two weeks ago – while also trading at or near some of the best levels week-over-week. Consequently, mortgage rates saw improvement as well. This week, there are several reports scheduled for release that could have an impact on current rates. On Tuesday, the Case-Shiller home price index is scheduled for release, and on Wednesday, pending home sales will be released as well. Construction spending is scheduled for release on Thursday morning.

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Market Update: Rates Trend Higher, Existing Home Sales and New Homes Sales Coming Up this Week

Blog posted On June 21, 2021

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the benchmark interest rate near zero. The move caused some market volatility, likely due to the FOMC’s discussion of tapering and rising rates. With the economy’s current pace of recovery and inflation, the FOMC predicted that we will see at least two interest rate hikes in 2023. Before last week’s meeting. the rate liftoff was set for 2024. As for their bond-buying program, they still plan to keep purchasing assets at the current pace until the labor market and inflation show substantial and sustained progress. But they did mention the idea of tapering, which is likely what sparked the movement in the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates. Mortgage rates could see more movement this week after the release of the existing home sales report and new home sales on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

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Market Update: Rates Fall, Housing Market Index, FOMC Meeting, Housing Starts and Building Permits

Blog posted On June 14, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended downward after the 10-year Treasury yields dropped to some of their lowest levels since May 7. Though Treasury yields don’t directly influence mortgage rates, they often trend in similar directions. When longer-dated Treasury yields (like the 10-year yield) gain strength, mortgage bonds tend to benefit as well – pushing rates lower. This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the benchmark interest rate, currently set near zero. In other important market-moving news, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will be releasing their housing market sentiment index on Tuesday. Housing starts and building permits are scheduled for release on Wednesday.

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged, Job Openings Scheduled for Release

Blog posted On June 07, 2021

Mortgage rates remained relatively unchanged last week and continued to hover near historic lows. Bond market volatility sent them slightly higher in the middle of the week, but with Friday’s employment situation, they trended lower again. Most of the reports in the employment situation were much lower than expected by economists. Consequently, “stock market futures actually rose, with investors continuing to bet that the measured pace of job gains would keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates and tightening monetary policy,” wrote Jeff Cox, Finance Editor for CNBC. The jobs report was a good check-in with the economy’s recovery, which is a key factor for the Fed to raise rates. With the economy’s job growth at a slower-than-expected pace, it’s unlikely the Fed will raise rates just yet. However, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is scheduled for release this Tuesday, which will be another important rate-influencing report.

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Market Update: Rates Drop, Construction Spending, and the Employment Situation

Blog posted On May 31, 2021

In the beginning of last week, mortgage rates trended downward to some of the lowest levels since the beginning of May. Towards the end of the week, they inched up due to a weakened bond market, but continue to remain historically low. According to Mortgage News Daily, these upward rate “moves aren't extreme in the bigger picture.” Some claim that Biden’s plan to propose a $6 trillion budget had an effect on the market. Another cause could be the core PCE index, which showed an increase of 3.1% that surged past the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

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Market Update: Rates Inch Upward, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales

Blog posted On May 24, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates saw a slight upward trend. The bond market took a turn on Wednesday after a scheduled treasury auction, but the bigger rate factor was the Fed’s policy meeting minutes on Wednesday afternoon. The minutes showed that the Fed was debating tapering soon. This means that they will gradually reduce the amount of bond purchases they make until it reaches zero. Historically, mortgage rates tend to move up when the Fed tapers their bond purchases. In 2013, rates spiked abruptly in reaction to the Fed’s taper discussion. However, this year is different because of the pandemic’s effect on the economy. The Fed is still looking for further economic recovery before they taper, and even when they do, it will be gradual.

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How Long Will High Lumber Prices Last?

Blog posted On May 18, 2021

Lumber prices have been surging to record highs over the past few weeks. One year ago, random-length lumber futures were around $340, according to Nasdaq. Two weeks ago, they hit an all-time high of $1,670. If they continue to rise, construction projects could be significantly delayed, the housing shortage could worsen, and home prices could climb even higher than they already are. Many people are wondering “how did lumber prices get here?”  An even more important question might be, “how (and when) will they drop?”

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Market Update: Rates Move Higher, Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales

Blog posted On May 17, 2021

Mortgage rates trended slightly higher last week after hitting a two-month low the week before. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a record high number of job openings and the consumer price index (CPI) showed the highest year-over-year increase in 13 years – both strong signs of the economy’s continued recovery. When the economy is stronger, rates may trend higher. However, the Federal Reserve is unconcerned by the CPI’s high year-over-year inflation jump due to its distorted comparison to last year’s pandemic lows. Until inflation is consistently averaging at around 2%, the Fed has said that it will keep the benchmark interest rate near zero.

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Market Update: Rates Unchanged, Job Openings, and Mortgage Applications

Blog posted On May 10, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates remained relatively unchanged, continuing to trend near historic lows. Early in the week, the bond yields fell due to stocks losing ground. Mortgage rates typically follow the momentum of the bond market, so they hovered near their current lows. Later in the week, several employment reports were expected to have an impact on rates. ADP employment was increasingly positive but the employment situation reports were mixed. Though a couple of the reports saw higher-than-expected increases (average hourly earnings, average weekly hours), others fell below expectations (manufacturing payrolls, nonfarm payrolls, private nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate). Consequently, rates didn’t see much movement and remained low.

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Market Update: No Rate Hike, Construction Spending, and the Weekly Mortgage Application Survey

Blog posted On May 03, 2021

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave interest rates unchanged, but predicted economic growth and inflation would accelerate in the coming months.  Mortgage rates remained relatively unchanged, and as a result are in a still historically low range. The cooling of rates has been much needed after consistent climbs throughout February and March. However, there’s a certain risk factor to the downward trend we’ve been witnessing for the past several weeks. Either rates could continue making insignificant fluctuations, or we could see a “reinvigoration of 2021’s rising rate trends,” said contributors at Mortgage News Daily.

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Market Recap: Home Prices Appreciate, Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, and Pending Sales Rise

Blog posted On April 30, 2021

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that the benchmark interest rate would remain near zero. This marks over one year since the Fed pushed rates down due to the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, mortgage rates remained relatively unchanged. For right now they’re still trending in a historically low range, and the market doesn’t show many indicators of that changing soon.

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Market Forecast: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FOMC Meeting, and Pending Home Sales

Blog posted On April 26, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended downward to reach some of the lowest levels in almost two months. The bond market showed renewed signs of strength and most mortgage lenders adjusted their pricing accordingly. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week to assess the benchmark interest rate and determine if it needs to be adjusted. Right now, the benchmark rate sits near zero. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a press conference on Wednesday afternoon. Prior to the decision, the Case-Shiller home price index will be released on Tuesday. The pending home sales index comes out on Thursday. 

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Market Recap: Mortgage Applications Jump, Existing Home Sales Decline, News Home Sales Surge

Blog posted On April 23, 2021

Mortgage rates fell this week, trending near lowest levels since the beginning of March. The bond market was “fairly stable,” according to Mortgage News Daily. Yesterday, the proposed increase in capital gains tax rates pushed bond yields down. Consequently, many lenders reported drops in mortgage rates as well.

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Market Forecast: Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales

Blog posted On April 19, 2021

Mortgage rates have seen a steady downward trend over the past couple of weeks, hitting some of their lowest levels in nearly a month. COVID-19 and mortgage rates have generally been conversely related. When COVID cases have spiked, rates have dropped lower. Therefore, as the economy recovers from the pandemic, we will likely see higher rates. If case counts rise and variants spread, then rates might hold or even drop further.

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Market Recap: Mortgage Applications Decline, Home Builder Sentiment Improves, Housing Starts and Building Permits Jump

Blog posted On April 16, 2021

This week, mortgage rates trended near some of their lowest levels in almost a month. After weeks of steady increases, rates are finally falling at a consistent pace. “The drop in rates creates yet another opportunity for those who have not refinanced to take a look at the possibility,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. In other market news, mortgage application submissions declined once again. Home builder sentiment improved, despite record high lumber prices. Housing starts jumped to their highest level in years and building permits rose as well.

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Market Forecast: Mortgage Applications, Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits

Blog posted On April 12, 2021

Last week, mortgage rates trended downward and hit their lowest point since the beginning of March. The bond market remained stable and bond yields have remained below important ceilings since mid-March. Coming up this week in housing news, the weekly mortgage application survey will be released on Wednesday morning, followed by the housing market index on Thursday and housing starts and building permits on Friday.

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Market Recap: Job Openings Surge, Mortgage Applications Fall, Consumer Credit Increases

Blog posted On April 09, 2021

Mortgage rates trended downward this week as the bond market remained relatively strong. According to Mortgage News Daily, bond yields “have remained under important ceilings since March 18th despite numerous attempts at a breakout.” Bond yields, specifically the 10-year treasury yields, are important indicators of any shifts in rate momentum. “Evidence for a supportive shift in the rate environment is beginning to mount,” wrote Mortgage News contributors.

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Market Forecast: Job Openings, Mortgage Applications, and Consumer Credit

Blog posted On April 05, 2021

Mortgage rates trended higher last week. On Tuesday, Mortgage Daily News reported net gains that pushed rates near some of their highest levels in a year.  However, with the bond market recovery on Tuesday afternoon and the reprices that followed, rates dropped slightly in the latter half of the week. This week, the Labor Department will release their Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. The weekly mortgage application survey will be released Wednesday morning, followed by the report on consumer credit that afternoon.

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