Market Update: Rates Trend Higher; ADP Nonfarm Employment Coming Up this Week

Blog posted On December 30, 2022

Last week, mortgage rates trended higher. Mortgage rates are based on the bond market, which is oftentimes slightly chaotic toward the end of the year. “The last two weeks of December are often a roll of the dice,” writes Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily. Rate movement this time of the year can more or less be ignored. During the holidays, the bond market and rates are often more volatile, but they should start to normalize once we get into the thick of January.

One economic report that could have an effect on the bond market this week is the ADP nonfarm employment change for December. Employment levels are being closely watched by the Federal Reserve, in hopes of increased unemployment and slowed employment growth. If the ADP report comes in with a lower level of new nonfarm jobs, it could be good for rates. However, there are several other important employment reports coming out this week that could also have an effect on bonds, like the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the employment situation

The ADP employment report is based on data from approximately 400,000 US businesses employing approximately 23 million employees nationwide. The ADP employment change in November was 127,000. December’s levels are expected to climb to 145,000. Nonfarm payrolls in the employment situation, however, are expected to decline. So, it will be an interesting week of reports to watch.

We will keep you updated on our highlighted report (ADP employment) this week, but if you have any other questions about holiday rate volatility or anything else, let us know.

Sources: Bloomberg, Mortgage News Daily,